Bitcoin and Ether continue the correction they had been preparing for weeks. Recall that the last two major developments for the crypto world were more negative than positive. Central banks (notably the Fed) have begun tightening monetary policy, which raises demand for safe assets rather than for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act remains only a bill. If Democrats win control of Congress, there is a real chance the bill will never become law. Thus, the fundamentals for further crypto market upside remain questionable. We do not deny that the asset can rise in any news environment—the recent dollar rally proves that—but right now there are no reliable technical signals apart from a rather dubious 4-hour deviation.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital released a report on Bitcoin's prospects. The report says the "bear" trend ended in June this year, and the market has moved into a phase of accumulation of "digital gold." It also notes that Bitcoin retains long-term fundamental growth drivers but highlights a reduction in long positions by institutional investors. Galaxy Digital sees risks to Bitcoin in losses of key technical support levels, ETF outflows, and quantum-computing threats.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, says long-term fundamental drivers for Bitcoin are growing US government debt, the budget deficit, and rising debt service costs. That list is now ""classic"—the go-to rationale experts cite in any uncertain situation. Thorn argues that Fed monetary policy no longer matters for the market. He treats ETF outflows through most of 2026 and a 51% drop in open interest as not fatal for Bitcoin. He also questions why the dollar has risen for two months straight despite massive US fiscal problems: if US debt, deficits, and spending are so problematic for the dollar, why do those factors apparently matter for the international Bitcoin but not for the greenback? In our view the Galaxy report is another attempt to push investors into buying Bitcoin to lift the price for those who already hold large positions.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin shows signs of a nascent bull trend. This trend began, as usual, with a pump lacking concrete, clear reasons. However, in the near term on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in decline, since the price reacted to the last two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. Also note that the breakout beyond the daily sideways channel may be a deviation—yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could head toward $70,800 and even preserve the downtrend that began last year. We consider short positions most relevant for the near term. The deviation at the lower boundary of the 4-hour channel does not look convincing, and a clear exit from the 4-hour sideways would be required to resume a southbound move.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe the technical picture for Ether has changed completely, and now Ether is oriented toward a new uptrend. However, bulls can rely only on the weekly chart, where Ether has targeted $4,800, the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily timeframe the first bearish FVG did not produce a meaningful reaction, but Bitcoin reacted to its own FVGs, and, recall, Ether's price depends on Bitcoin by roughly 80–90%. Bitcoin began to correct, and Ether plunged as well. Thus, in the near term, we expect declines. Ether's targets lie around $2,300 and lower, down to $1,850 and $1,391. On the daily timeframe, Ether received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Several sell signals formed on Bitcoin, so Ether does not even need its own signals to fall. We now wait for Bitcoin to exit the 4-hour flat.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH—change of character, a break in trend structure.

Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders market makers use to build positions.

FVG—fair value gap, an area of price inefficiency. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market; subsequently, price tends to return and react to these areas in line with the main trend.

IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After returning to such an area, the price shows no reaction and impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.

OB — order block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position intending to capture liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.