Well-known investor Jason Calacanis said yesterday that a tough year for Bitcoin is only beginning and urged investors to sell crypto. The remark came a day before the Federal Reserve decision, when Bitcoin trades around $80,000, so it resonated strongly. Calacanis believes Bitcoin will never again reach its all-time high and that its popularity is fading.

He made three main points, first, about price. He predicts Bitcoin will fall again to $57,000 over the next 12 months — roughly 29% below the current level — and ETF outflows will continue. Recall Bitcoin already dipped below $60,000 earlier this year, so he expects a retest of past lows. The second point concerns appeal: Bitcoin no longer attracts investors and, in his view, the network offers nothing beyond value-storage. The third point concerns the market of the future: artificial intelligence offers far greater growth opportunities, so investors should rotate from Bitcoin into that sector.

Michael Saylor promptly replied and did so briefly: "AI creates abundance. Bitcoin ensures scarcity. One expands humanity's ability to create value; the other preserves and transmits it across time and space. The world needs both," he wrote. Notably, Saylor does not dispute the price argument; he reframes the debate. For him, AI and Bitcoin are not competitors for capital but different tools, and he therefore rejects Calacanis's replacement thesis on principle.

The market provides ammunition for both sides. Recent weakness supports Calacanis's case: Bitcoin is heading for a roughly 4% monthly decline, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped from about 70 a month ago to a neutral ~48 today. Against it are other data points. Galaxy Digital research chief Alex Thorn says the bear market ended in June and only a weekly close below $76,540 should force a reassessment. In addition, U.S. spot ETFs now manage roughly $100.8 billion, JPMorgan Asset Management projects about 10% annualized return over a 10–15 year horizon, and the OCC is opening the market to stablecoin issuers.

I do not share the absolutist view that the prior peak will never be retested — such categorical forecasts typically ignore the arrival of institutional capital and the expansion of banking infrastructure around the market. But I do not dismiss the risk of another decline. In the coming days, everything will hinge on the Fed decision and the tone of the press conference; I expect that hawkish rhetoric could push the market to test $79,000, and the $76,540 level will be the key test of Galaxy's view versus Calacanis's forecast.

On Bitcoin

The price is near 80,900 in a range between support at 80,800 and resistance at 81,000, with outer reference points at 80,500 below and 81,500 above. The plan centers on two mirrored directions, each with a breakout and a bounce scenario.

I consider buying in two cases. If price breaks 81,000 to the upside and holds above it, I buy with a target of 81,500, provided price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; at the target, I take profit and consider a short on the pullback. If a break below 80,800 fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce, targeting 81,000 initially, then 81,500.

I structure selling symmetrically. If price breaks 80,800 to the downside and holds below it, I open a short with a target of 80,500, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 81,000 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce with an initial target of 80,800 and then 80,500.

On Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range lies between support at 2,344 and resistance at 2,355, with outer reference points at 2,327 below and 2,372 above.

I buy a break of 2,355 to the upside with a hold above it, with a target of 2,372, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below 2,344 fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 2,355, then 2,372.

I sell a confirmed break below 2,344 with a target of 2,327, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 2,355 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce, targeting 2,344 first, then 2,327.

I use both indicators as filters to cut off false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; I make decisions only after price confirms the specified levels.