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28.10.2026 12:49 AM
USD/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Japanese Yen Continues to Weaken Against a Confident U.S. Dollar

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The USD/JPY pair shows positive dynamics for the third day in a row, continuing to retrace the drop to the October low near the round 156.00 level recorded last week. However, active buying has not emerged ahead of this week's important events.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision after a two-day meeting. Market participants should focus on the accompanying statement and the Fed chair's comments at the post-meeting press conference. In addition, the advance U.S. Q3 GDP estimate and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index are due Thursday and will influence expectations about the future path of Fed policy.

For the yen, expectations that the Bank of Japan may refrain from aggressive rate hikes support carry-trade strategies and continue to weigh on the currency.

The U.S. dollar, in turn, has been in demand for the third consecutive day: market confidence grows that the Fed will remain relatively hawkish amid inflation concerns driven by high energy prices.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY's momentum remains contained: quotes are trading below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) may provide the nearest support. Below that is the round 157.00 level. Resistance is the 20-day SMA; a break above it would open the way to stronger resistance at the 200-day SMA. Clearing that barrier would ease bearish pressure.

In conclusion, USD/JPY is showing positive momentum for a third straight day. Market participants should remain cautious and consider all scenarios following the Fed meeting and the release of key macro data. Carry-trade flows will continue to influence the yen, and expectations of further Fed tightening may support the dollar and provide room for further upside in USD/JPY.

Irina Yanina,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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