EUR/USD resumed its decline even before the ECB and Fed meetings, before the inflation releases from Germany and the United States, and before the GDP reports from Germany, the European Union, and the United States. It is worth recalling that the previous bearish advance lasted a full 25 trading days, during which the euro lost almost six cents. The same pattern now appears to be repeating. Nothing particularly damaging to the European currency has happened this week or last week, yet traders have once again rushed to get rid of it as a precaution. Yesterday's Fed meeting, today's ECB meeting, and the US PCE and GDP reports have done nothing to change market sentiment. The euro continues to decline just as it did before. The Fed decided to leave its interest rate unchanged, as the market had expected. The ECB also decided to keep its rate unchanged, an outcome the market had considered virtually certain. The US GDP and inflation reports provided moderate support for the dollar. Against this backdrop, the bears' renewed attacks on Thursday were largely predictable. There is just one problem: the bears have been attacking for two full months, and it remains difficult to believe that not a single development during this period has been positive for the European currency. In this view, the euro's continued decline is not being driven by the flow of news.

It is worth noting that the Fed's current stance is not particularly hawkish. Over the past two weeks, no FOMC member has advocated more hawkish action by the central bank, and only two committee members voted for tighter policy at the meeting. The Fed therefore made a neutral decision that did not warrant the dollar's appreciation over recent weeks. The US economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter, but that alone does not justify a two-month rally in the dollar. The ECB also left interest rates unchanged and, like the Fed, is expected to raise them in December. The euro and the dollar are currently facing very similar conditions.

At present, there are no signs that the bearish advance is coming to an end. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price may react to it, producing a new sell signal. The bears have moved too far for their advance to be easily stopped now. The bulls, meanwhile, need to invalidate imbalance 24 and form bullish patterns before they can expect even a modest recovery. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, but so far the bulls have demonstrated only weakness.

In September, the FOMC raised its interest rate and signaled its readiness to begin tightening monetary policy. This was enough to trigger a large-scale bearish advance that continues to this day. However, even after the Fed's policy tightening in September and the possibility of another move in December, it is difficult to believe that the euro has not received a single piece of positive news during this period. The market is ignoring most of it.

Overall, the news background remains supportive of the bulls. Although the Fed has adopted a tighter monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. The European Union also faces problems, but that is precisely the point: problems exist everywhere, yet only the euro is falling. Both central banks are tightening monetary policy, but only the dollar is rising. Nevertheless, a recovery in the euro should not be expected until bullish signals emerge. Buying the European currency in advance is also inadvisable.

The current technical picture points unequivocally to the continuation of bearish momentum. The relevant pattern at present is imbalance 24, which may be mitigated in the near future. The bulls' only current opportunity lies in a liquidity sweep below the 1.1066 low. However, opening long positions requires more than just a liquidity sweep.

On Thursday, the economic news once again supported the bears. The US GDP report came in stronger than traders had expected, while PCE inflation accelerated in September, as anticipated. Thus, the two most important reports supported the bears, while the ECB had little chance of supporting the bulls in the first place.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to launch an advance in 2026. At a structural and global level, Trump's policies—which led to a substantial decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. At present, there are no major factors providing support for the US currency, despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments and the tense situation in Europe are currently weighing on the euro.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union

• Germany – Unemployment rate (08:55 UTC).
• Germany – Third-quarter GDP growth (09:00 UTC).
• European Union – Third-quarter GDP growth (10:00 UTC).
• European Union – Unemployment rate (10:00 UTC).
• Germany – Consumer Price Index (13:00 UTC).

On October 30, the economic calendar contains five releases, with the GDP reports being the most significant. The economic news background may have a moderate impact on market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

In this view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has been taking a corrective pause for an entire year. The news background shifted sharply in favor of the bears eight months ago, but the four-year trend itself cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. The bulls may resume their advance before the end of the year, but their only realistic opportunities at present are the 1.1066 low established in June last year and the 1.1114 low established several weeks ago. The bears received a sell signal at imbalance 19. At this point, existing short positions should be held until bullish signals or patterns form. A new sell signal may emerge at imbalance 24.